Time to recolour RAMSI?

With clear indications that RAMSI is already somewhat reduced, there are appearing a range of different positions of what its future would look like.

NZ's Foreign Affairs Minister McCully has made a clear call: a new emphasis on development. Australia has been a little more guarded with both Stephen Smith (once Foreign Minister, now Defence Minister) and Richard Marles (Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Islands Affairs) toeing the same line in media reports to ABC and Radio Australia respectively: this is a period of transition.

In his interview, Marles emphasised that development work was always part of RAMSI's work, but also that policing remained key. When asked whether development emphasis meant a reduction in policing emphasis, he demurred:

Oh no, I wouldn't say that. I think the policing role is very important and that was acknowledged yesterday and I actually think the role that has been played with the Royal Solomon Islands police force is incredibly important and that is going to be an ongoing role and I think that will persist for as long as any of the elements of RAMSI. So policing still remains a very important part of the RAMSI mission and will continue to do so for sometime. But I think it is right to focus on development as well and development within the country and within the capacity of the government, but also very much within the police force itself.

Clearly when facing a public relations "selling" exercise, politicians cannot be expected to admit trade-offs, so we can look forward to a continuation of this sort of rhetoric contending a sort of "concentration on everything".

But for development actors and private investors wanting a clear picture of the actual distribution of emphasis, we need a more objective measure of relative focus, preferably one which is comparable over time. We propose one that measures RAMSI in workforce terms: green, blue and white collar groups.

Green collar - the military component which was in strongest evidence early on in RAMSI. This is what is now down to 80 (mainly reservists) from Australia, 43 NZDF personnel from NZ and an unspecified number from the other 13 RAMSI participating countries.

Blue collar - the policing component which originally were conceived as "leading" the RAMSI effort in 2003 to restore law and order.  This is currently at 250 from the RAMSI participating countries according to their website.

White collar - the development component consisting of technical advisors and consultants working in government ministries and in more traditional aid/development roles.

Obviously tasks like strengthening the SI police will probably involve both white- and blue- collar workforces of RAMSI, but for monitoring purposes perhaps it would be simpler to assign annual spend levels and staffing allocations to one of the three colour-labels to get a clear view of what emphasis RAMSI has in the future, especially when compared to the past.

Data, capacity and integration key issues for MDGs in Solomons

In the recent ESCAP/ADB/UNDP report on the MDGs progress in the Asia-Pacific region, A-Future-Within-Reach-2008, the summary given for the Pacific Islands region paints a grim picture:

Of the five subregions of ESCAP, the success of Pacific Island Developing Countries (PIDCs) in implementing the MDGs has been less impressive. There has been some progress and the subregion has already met some targets... ...However, the subregion has yet to make progress on the other 17 MDG targets.

The PIDCs may eventually achieve some of the other goals, but only after 2015, as current progress is slow or slipping into reverse. It should also be pointed out that for some targets it is difficult to track progress because of a lack of data. (Box 1.2 p 12)

Data
Solomon Islands appears to fit squarely with these findings. Of the 21 indicators tracked in the report, SI data is only reported for 11. By this measure, progress in Solomon Islands cannot even be measured for almost 50% of these MDG targets.

Those indicators for which data is missing include:

• Percentage of children under 5 who are underweight
• Percentage of primary age childern enroled in primary school, percentage reaching grade 5, percentage completing primary school
• Percentage of rural and urban people with access to an "improved water source"

While SI's the small and highly dispersed population makes data collection difficult, poor systems for data capture and harmonisation are also at fault, and most significantly, there is a need for relevant and usable local 'translations' of the MDG concepts:

PIDCs will also need to improve data collection and monitoring, and establish regular reporting systems, following standard formats – though some MDG indicators such as the proportion of the population below $1 per day need to be defined in the context of the PIDCs to make them more meaningful and relevant. (emphasis mine)

Forests
Also of concern is the fact that SI is actually regressing on MDG target 7 : Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources. This is because a key indicator for this target, Indicator 7.1 'forest cover', is being reduced at a rate that is accelerating, not slowing (MDG Update 2, p33).

The loss of rainforests through logging is especially significant to a country with large subsistence rural sector such as Solomons. In justifying this indicator for human development, FAO forestry experts underscored the significance of forests for reducing poverty:

The livelihoods of the approximately 240 million of the world’s poor that live in forested areas of developing countries depend on the protection and, in many cases, the rehabilitation of these forests. ...Widely recognized environmental functions of forests include mitigating climate change, conserving biological diversity, maintaining clean and reliable water resources, sustaining and enhancing land productivity, protecting coastal and marine resources and enhancing urban environments.

Capacity and integration
A Future Within Reach also pointed out that limitations to capacity and integration in the Pacific subregion were responsible for lack of progress on the MDGs:

Another key constraint is the shortage of capacity for management and implementation. ...The PIDCs will need to find better ways of integrating the MDGs in national sustainable development strategies. This will mean, for example, costing MDG activities, including both financial and human resource contributions, and incorporating these into national budgets.

While the report blames the situation to "a lack of will and skills", the sheer scale of administrative effort involved with reporting and monitoring may also be a factor.

The UNESCAP secretariat which was partially responsible for producing the A Future Within Reach report comprises more than 600 staff; this number rivals the male population of Niue (2006 est. 802) or the total number of secondary school teachers in Solomon Islands (1999 est. 650).

The Pacific Islands as a group are the smallest and least populous countries on the planet, and the effort to maintain adequate records may in some cases encroach significantly on the capacity available to maintain services. Is there a limit to the practicality of MDG monitoring for very small states, or is some fresh thinking needed around the issue? Or perhaps, both?

Pacific Economic report released

AusAID has released the first of a new series of economic reports for the region:

The Pacific Economic Survey 2008 is the first of a series of annual reports on the economic performance of Pacific island countries and Timor-Leste.

For the Solomons, the results are mixed and very challenging:

• 5.8 % growth rate
• growth is highly unsustainable and based on aid and logging
  

More articles in coming postings, on these and other issues regarding SI raised by the report, .

The Pacific Survey 2008 can be downloaded here.

Private sector granting fund launched

The Enterprise Challenge Fund for Solomon Islands was launched in Honiara today. The fund was set up by Australia to provide investment grants to businesses, aimed at raising overall incomes in SE Asian and Pacific countries.

SI is in the second group of countries; PNG and Fiji were in the first group, launched last year.

Through open competition, matching grants of AUD $100,000 to AUD $1.5 million (SBD650 thousand-8 million) will be awarded to private-sector business projects.